{"paper":"Writing Code vs. Shipping Code: Productivity Effects Across Generations of AI Coding Tools","authors":["Mert Demirer","Leon Musolff","Liyuan Yang"],"source":"https://www.nber.org/papers/w35275","doi":"10.3386/w35275","version":"2026-09 revision abstract","design":"matched event study","unit":"reported cumulative effect, percent","estimates":[{"metric":"commits","percent":240},{"metric":"projects","percent":80},{"metric":"releases","percent":30}],"note":"Point estimates from the abstract. Confidence intervals are not displayed. Different outcome metrics; not a conversion funnel and not Anthropic-specific measurements."}